Here we are: 14 races in to the Formula One season, a 78-point lead for Max Verstappen, and Red Bull leading the constructors – it all sounds very 2023, doesn’t it? Except that it is not. Not even close.
While the first half a dozen or so races gave away little of what was to come, those that followed have been unpredictable and a far cry from the Red Bull domination seen in the previous two seasons. The stats tell the story:
- 7 different drivers winning a race
- 4 different teams winning a race
- 4 different pole sitters (okay, Max still dominates this one thanks to his 7 in a row at the start, but in the next 7, he has only taken pole once)
The races have been exciting, the winners unpredictable, and if the season had started after the first seven races, we would be looking at an all-time classic contest for the championship. While callbacks to 2021 are perhaps a little premature, and Norris likely needs a DNF or two from Verstappen to make the title fight interesting, fans can genuinely feel excited about the prospect of 2025 being an incredibly tight fight all season long.
What Has Changed?
Most obviously, McLaren (and, to varying degrees at different circuits, Mercedes and Ferrari) have significantly improved their cars to the point where the Red Bull is arguably not the fastest car. It is probably still the most consistently fast across all the Formula One circuits, but in terms of raw pace, it has become common to see at least one other team ahead of them.
Not only have other teams improved, but it seems Red Bull have hit something of a ceiling with their development. The upgrades they brought to Hungary were taken off for Belgium, possibly not having the desired effect. Is this the impact of Adrian Newey stepping away? Are the effects of the wind tunnel penalty finally being felt? Are they up against the budget cap and limited in how much development they can do mid-season? Whatever the answer, their in-season development has been much slower than other teams this year.
These developments in the cars’ competitiveness are being shown in the Formula One Constructors’ Championship. At the time of writing, Red Bull have just committed to Perez for the remainder of the season. By doing so, they have surely also committed themselves to at best a second-place finish. It is unclear whether Perez’s woes are car-based, are being highlighted by Max driving at an extremely high level, or it is just his own driving falling away. Whatever the reason, it seems very likely that McLaren will beat Red Bull to the title, with Mercedes a dark horse if they can continue this recent good run (and make sure their cars weigh the correct amount).
Ferrari meanwhile threatened to do what McLaren have managed, but ever since their big upgrade package in Spain had less than the desired effect on performance they have struggled to compete at the front of the field.
And What About the Rest of the Field?
Sauber are, let’s face it, having a shocker. Williams are not doing much better, although with the signing of Sainz and the steady leadership of James Vowles, you feel they are on an upwards trajectory. Alpine continue to disappoint in racing terms, creating excitement only in the dispute between Ocon and Gasly. Aston Martin seem to have gone backwards, again showing some promise at the start of a season before it all falls away. RB, and particularly Tsunoda, are having a decent year, while the team that will probably be most happy with the first 14 races is Haas. Under new leadership, they appear to be getting the most out of the car on their limited budget.
Drivers’ Market
The final thought for the summer must go to the drivers’ market. It feels like silly season began way back in February when Hamilton announced his move to Ferrari and has not stopped since. It was always going to be a fairly active market after last season when there were zero changes to the lineup. There is much to be decided or confirmed – Antonelli to Mercedes (making his Formula One debut), and the second seats at Alpine, Sauber, and Red Bull. You get the sense as well that Perez has to significantly improve to keep his drive for 2025.
Looking Forward
It’s possible that, post-summer break, Red Bull will work out their upgrades and recommence some level of domination. It also seems likely that most teams will turn their full attention to 2025 development. But even the possibility that this does not happen, and instead Red Bull continue to be challenged for the remainder of the season, must fill fans with hope that the tide has turned.